climate change opinion essay tagalog

Unsupported Browser Detected. It seems the web browser you're using doesn't support some of the features of this site. For the best experience, we recommend using a modern browser that supports the features of this website. We recommend Google Chrome , Mozilla Firefox , or Microsoft Edge

• About Asia Society
• Career Opportunities
• Internships
• Upcoming Events
• Past Events
• Event Recaps
• Become a Member
• Asia 21 Philippines
• Our Locations

Philippines

Ang ating kwentong klima, our climate story.

The Philippines is ranked high in vulnerability to climate change. This means that as the climate crisis worsens, the higher the risks are for Filipinos to hazards and devastations. As Filipinos, we see this every year when the heat rises up to 35 C during summers and floods brought by typhoons destroying thousands of homes, livelihoods, and even lives. This is our reality, an evidence of how badly the climate crisis affected and continues to affect us. This is a subject we should no longer brush off, definitely not when it will be too late.

In 2021, the Oscar M. Lopez Center launched the Balangay Media Project bridging climate science and climate storytelling that aims to effectively bring data to people in ways to better understand the state of our country. A project that aims to organize local media practitioners and climate change advocates by building their capacities for science-based reporting and utilizing traditional, new, and out-of-home media to promote climate change adaptation and resilience-building of communities.

Born out of this project is the Umalohokan Fellowship, a network of communicators that develops media blitz campaigns and research projects on relevant climate issues of communities.

In continuing this initiative of climate storytelling and bringing climate science to the people, Asia Society Philippines, in close partnership with the Oscar M. Lopez Center , launched a 4-part series on climate, Ang Ating Kwentong Klima (Our Climate Story) , that outlines the problems that the Philippines have been facing and will face due to the climate crisis.

In this series, we have gathered climate experts from the country to share their knowledge and insights on the current state of country. We also feature the 2021 Umalohokan Fellows to provide an in-depth analysis on what has been happening on the ground since last year’s fellowship. Each expert also shares their hopes for the future as well as encouragements for people to take action for us to collectively save the planet and reach our climate goals.

Through Ang Ating Kwentong Klima, we ask:

• What is the current state of the Philippines in relation to the worsening climate crisis?
• How do go about strengthening our climate programs, even lessening our own carbon footprint to not exacerbate the rapid increase of disasters?
• How do we take advantage of the climate science, data, and platform we have to increase better practices from corporations and individuals to prevent further destructions to the environment?

Each episode focuses on a certain impact of the climate crisis to the country—from the issue of food security, to rising sea levels, to alarming rates of devastations brought by typhoons that are getting stronger every year, to the effects on the indigenous communities, and even the Filipino culture, we explore how climate change has been affecting every facet of our life.

Watch the full series below moderated by Kato Sarmiento of the Oscar M. Lopez Center.

Episode 1: Kwentong Pagkain

My dream is to have dignified Filipino farmers and fisherfolk, who are climate stewards and who have the capacity to do more with less resources by producing nourishing food for Filipinos. ⏤ Christine Jodloman, AGREA

Kwentong Pagkain (Food Stories), the first episode of the series, discussed the impact of climate change on food security in an agricultural country like the Philippines. We are joined by Ayn Torres of the Oscar M. Lopez Center, Christine Jodloman of AGREA, Mavic Conde of Team Bicol Umalohokan, and EC Toledo of Philstar and Team G-Unit.

Episode 2: Kwentong Isla

They (affected communities) experience climate change but for them it remains a question of 'why does this happen?' and 'what are the things that we can do?'. Which is also what we want to communicate, the science part of climate change and the actual on-the-ground experiences and stories of communities and its members.  ⏤ Juan Miguel Torres, Team Salikhain Kolektib

Kwentong Isla (Island Stories), the second episode of the series, talked about the impact of climate change to the lives of Filipinos in an archipelagic country, especially the coastal and island communities. Joining us are Dr. Laurice Jamero of the Manila Observatory, Juan Miguel Torres of Team Salikhain Kolektib, and Candeze Mongaya of Rare Philippines.

Episode 3: Kwentong Kultura

The most vulnerable sector of the community that are sensitive to climatic event are those communities that are resource dependent⏤they rely on their livelihood and income directly from the resources from the environment⏤and any perturbation and changes will really affect them. ⏤ Ronald Maliao, Salumayag Youth Collective for Forests

Kwentong Kultura (Stories of Culture) explored the effects of climate change on indigenous communities and their culture. Joining us in this conversation are Dr. Noralene Uy of the International Recovery Platform, Robert Mansalo-on Cahapon of Salumayag Youth Collective for Forests, and the Team Bintuwak Umalohokan Fellows, Ronald Maliao , Ritchel Cahilig , and Richard Cahilig .

Episode 4: Kwentong Kinabukasan

When we talk about climate futures, we are not talking about the distant future, we’re talking about the future being here. It might not be in your area or community yet, but it might be according to the climate scenarios, and that’s where climate scenarios play a part. It can guide us on what we can prepare for in the future. ⏤ Kato Sarmiento, Oscar M. Lopez Center

Kwentong Kinabukasan (Stories of the Future) discussed the country’s climate resiliency projects and explore how we can reach our climate goals. Joined by Dr. Faye Cruz of Manila Observatory, Asia 21 Fellow Atty. Lesley Y. Cordero of World Bank, and Umalohokan Fellow Arch. Arlene Lusterio of Team DanTAOn.

Ang Ating Kwentong Klima is produced in partnership with the Oscar M. Lopez Center

About Oscar M. Lopez Center

The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (OML Center) is a non-profit organization born out of a private sector initiative to enhance support for research and innovative solutions towards climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. It is rooted in the principle that science must play a role in building the resilience of communities through actionable knowledge. Founded in 2012, the OML Center was established in response to an apparent research gap that was alarmingly disproportionate to the climate-related risks and vulnerabilities of the Philippines. The first of its kind in the country, the OML Center continues to be the only privately funded grant-giving non-governmental organization (NGO) doing research-based climate change programs and initiatives.

And a Special Thanks to our Promotional Partners:

• ABS-CBN Foundation Inc
• Biodiversity Conservation Society of the Philippines
• Eco Explorations
• Forest Foundation Philippines
• Knowledge Channel Foundation Inc.
• Philippine Parks and Biodiversity
• Rare Philippines
• Save Philippine Seas
• Sustainable PH
• Sustainable PH Youth

Climate change: Isang tao bawat segundo ang inililikas mula sa kanyang tahanan dahil sa epekto ng global warming

Rohingya Muslim women, stand holding their sick children to seek medical assistance across the border in Palong Khali, Bangladesh, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2017 Source: AP/Dar Yasin

Get the SBS Audio app

Other ways to listen, napakahalaga ang nalalapit ng pagpupulong sa usaping climate change sa glasgow, dahil tinatayang isang tao bawat segundo ang inililikas mula sa kanyang tahanan dahil sa masamang epekto ng global warming. ang tindi ng pagtaas ng lebel ng tubig sa dagat, bagyo, pagbaha, sunog sa kagubatan at tagtuyo, saan sila tutungo sa ngayon, walang mapagpipilian ang mga ito dahil wala namang sapat na batas at proteksyon na kanilang masasandalan sa panahong naiipit sila sa peligro., latest podcast episodes.

Pinoy band na Dear Luna, ibinibida ang indie folk music sa Australia

Mga balita ngayong ika-31 ng Agosto 2024

Kwentong Palayok: Lugaw is love

LGBTIQ+ dismayado sa hindi pagsama ng mga tanong tungkol sa sekswalidad o kasarian sa Census

Recommended for you.

Mga bata ang magbabayad sa pinsala sa klima bunga ng climate change

SBS News in Filipino

Filipinos, how are you adapting to climate change? You ask, we answer

Lucille l. sering.

Climate change is definitely upon us.  You don’t need to have a scientific mind to realize this, as recent natural calamities have shown in the Philippines, which also swept through some parts of Southeast Asia causing hundreds of casualties and losses to the economy: Typhoons Ondoy (International name: Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) in 2009 that flooded Metro Manila; Sendong (Washi) in 2011 which was recognized as the world’s deadliest storm in 2011; and Pablo (Bopha) in 2012.  Certainly, this is a little discomforting and makes us a little bit apprehensive about our future. To lessen our anxiety about this phenomenon, it helps to ask questions and get answers. It’s also good to know if something is being done to address the problem – and know that it is being done right.

The Aquino government has been very aggressive in its approach to address the problem of climate change.  It staffed the Climate Change Commission  (CCC) and made it functional. The CCC coordinates and provides oversight and policy advice on programs and projects on climate change. It is also tasked to craft the National Strategic Framework on Climate Change and the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP). The latter serves as the country’s roadmap to effectively deal with the problem. The CCC also takes a strong stand in international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

To give more teeth to the government’s efforts to adapt to climate change, another law was passed creating the People’s Survival Fund (PSF). With an initial fund of P1 billion pesos (equivalent to US25 million), the special fund will be used for climate change adaptation programs and projects at the local level.

To ensure that the government stays on the right path, through the Climate Change Commission and the Department of Budget and Management, it has requested the World Bank to undertake a study to review government expenditures related to climate change and institutions with mandates to address climate change.

The study called the Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review or CPEIR, also provides a general backdrop of projected increases in global temperature and its corresponding effects:

• Globally, since 1950, ocean temperature increased by about 0.09 o C
• Sea levels have been rising by 15-20 cm from pre-industrial levels with the rate nearly doubling from that of the past century.
• Industrial activity was non-existent in the Philippines during this period and any GHG emission could only come from agricultural and other normal processes. However, as a small and archipelagic country, the Philippines is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise. The report cited a study (Dasgupta et al. 2009) which listed the cities of San Jose, Manila, Roxas and Cotabato among the top 10 most vulnerable cities in the East Asia and Pacific Region to sea-level rise.

Based on the study, climate change clearly poses a threat to human survival. It foretells of the submergence of coastal communities due to sea-level rise. It also projects the occurrence of frequent and stronger typhoons, and of prolonged, intense heat in the summers and heavy rains and flooding during rainy season. It also tells of the dire consequences of these natural catastrophes to human habitation, food supply, the degradation of ecosystem services and eventual extinction of some species. This clearly shows that climate change is a development issue that threatens the gains and economic development attained in past decades. Agriculture, for instance, which relies on a stable, regular weather pattern will be adversely affected, if such pattern is disrupted by climate change.

While the Philippines is not a major green house gas (GHG) emitter, the report projects that our country’s GHG emission will continue to increase in the years to come. This growth will be due to a growing economy, heightened urbanization, increased demand and use of energy and the expected increase in the number of vehicles, all of which are highly dependent on crude oil for energy.

Given the above, the report recommends several measures along three main lines:

• strengthening planning, execution, and financing framework for climate change
• enhancing leadership and accountability through monitoring, evaluation, and review of climate change policies and activities
• building capacity and managing change

The report, to be launched on June 25, 2013 in Manila, also calls on the government to address several barriers to effective implementation of the climate change agenda.

Meanwhile, a survey commissioned by the World Bank and conducted by the Social Weather Station finds that many Filipinos say they are now experiencing the effects of a changing climate. The survey looked into the level of knowledge of Filipinos about the impacts of climate change as well as their personal experience/s about it. We’ll soon share the results of this survey on www.worldbank.org/ph , but in the meantime, perhaps there are those who are still in the dark about how to adapt to a changing climate, or how the government is working to mitigate its effects.

If you have questions about this topic or would like to share some observations about your environment , please post them in the comments section of this blog. Join the conversation on Twitter by sending your feedback to @worldbankasia and to @CCCommissionPh with hashtag #askCCC and we'll make sure to respond to them. We hope to address all your concerns and will be selecting five of the most pressing questions and answer them in a short video called   5 Questions, 5 Minutes to be posted on www.worldbank.org/ph . Ask now!

Image courtesy of audiovisualjunkie through a Creative Commons license

• Climate Change
• Philippines
• East Asia and Pacific

Get updates from East Asia & Pacific on the Rise

Thank you for choosing to be part of the East Asia & Pacific on the Rise community!

Your subscription is now active. The latest blog posts and blog-related announcements will be delivered directly to your email inbox. You may unsubscribe at any time.

Guest blogger

Join the Conversation

• Share on mail
• comments added

Climate change and the Philippines

On the contrary.

Read this in The Manila Times digital edition.

THE 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference or COP27 officially started in Sharm El Sheik in Egypt on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. This is 30 years after the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held, and seven years after the Paris Agreement was agreed upon by parties during the COP21 meeting.

Ad-free access

• Unlimited ad-free access to website articles
• Limited offer: Subscribe today and get digital edition access for free (accessible with up to 3 devices)

Why the world is looking to the Philippines for climate justice

Lecturer, Environmental Law and Co-Director, LLM/MSc Environmental Policy and Governance, University of Stirling

Senior lecturer, University of York

Senior lecturer and Director of the LLM in International Law & Security, University of Dundee

Disclosure statement

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University of York and University of Stirling provide funding as members of The Conversation UK.

View all partners

Corporations and governments around the world increasingly stand accused of causing or failing to prevent the damaging effects of climate change. Test cases are being filed in many countries to establish who is responsible and what action should be taken.

In 2016, after a series of particularly violent typhoons hit the Philippines, a group of Filipino citizens and civil organisations, including Greenpeace, accused 47 corporations of having significantly contributed to climate change, and called for them to be held accountable. Dubbed the “ Carbon Majors ”, these included the likes of Shell, BP and Chevron.

The group asked the Philippines Human Rights Commission to investigate the Carbon Majors’ responsibility for alleged breaches of Filipinos’ human rights to “life, health, food, water, sanitation, adequate housing and self determination” that are associated with climate change.

The Carbon Majors petition bases its claims on a study by climate expert Richard Heede which attributes “the lion’s share of cumulative global CO2 and methane emissions since the industrial revolution” to the world’s largest producers of crude oil, natural gas, coal and cement.

Taking on the big guns

In an unprecedented move, in December 2017, the commission agreed to investigate the Carbon Majors petition. Its powers are relatively modest: the commission can only make recommendations to the Filipino authorities and those found to have breached human rights, but it cannot award damages and it has no enforcement powers. Still, its decision could be a game changer for climate change litigation.

In 2005, a group of Inuit petitioned the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to assert the United States’ responsibility for human rights violations associated with climate change in the Arctic. But the petition was dismissed on procedural grounds. So what has changed since then?

In recent years, a long string of United Nations Human Rights Council resolutions has emphasised the role of human rights in tackling climate change. The most recent international climate change treaty – the 2015 Paris Agreement – explicitly links human rights and the obligations of climate change law. These developments seem to have emboldened efforts to use human rights law as a means to tackle climate change.

Far from being an isolated complaint, the Carbon Majors petition is part of a global upsurge in climate change litigation. Yet, there are complex legal obstacles to attributing responsibility for breaches of human rights caused by climate change.

First, applicants have to demonstrate that the obligations of corporations encompass human rights violations associated with the adverse effects of climate change. Second, they have to prove that a specific corporation has contributed to climate change, in such a way that amounts to a breach of human rights.

But a balance has to be struck between environmental protection and other legitimate interests, such as providing energy for consumers. However, John Knox, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment, has pointed out that this cannot result in unjustified, foreseeable breaches of human rights. He has also suggested that improved scientific knowledge, such as that used to identify the Carbon Majors, has made it easier to trace the links between particular emissions and resulting harm.

A petition for justice

All of these elements come together in the Carbon Majors petition, which concerns harm caused by corporations that was largely foreseeable. Recent research suggests that corporations have long known about climate change and its likely consequences, but have failed to act on it.

So the petition can be likened to ground-breaking litigation for harm caused by smoking tobacco or by driving cars. Before successful court cases were brought, liability for either of these hazardous activities was hard to establish. It was only when courts started to attribute responsibility that victims were provided with redress, and dedicated insurance schemes and liability regimes were created.

The decision of the Philippines Human Rights Commission to investigate the Carbon Majors petition is, then, potentially revolutionary. In 2018, the commission will carry out a series of fact-finding missions and public hearings in the Philippines, London and New York to establish whether multinational corporations can be held responsible for human rights violations associated with climate change and, if so, recommend ways to mitigate them.

Far from being a symbolic gesture, this acknowledgement of multinationals’ role in causing climate change would be a primer, and could potentially spark a domino effect in climate change litigation elsewhere.

Corporations are already being brought to court in the US, where the cities of New York and San Francisco are seeking to hold the world’s biggest oil companies responsible for present and future damage caused by climate change.

All eyes are now on the Philippines to see what conclusions its Human Rights Commission will draw; for many, it has already made history by deciding to investigate the Carbon Majors petition in the first place.

• Climate change
• Human rights
• Philippines
• Oil and gas
• Climate justice
• Paris Agreement

Director of STEM

Community member - Training Delivery and Development Committee (Volunteer part-time)

Chief Executive Officer

Finance Business Partner

Head of Evidence to Action

Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines

The report says that an integration of the climate change agenda in government's planning and budgeting is critical to build the country's resilience.

• The Philippines is among the most vulnerable countries to climate-related weather events.
• A World Bank report looks at the innovations and gaps in policy and financing of climate change programs in the country.
• Climate change adaptation is very important in achieving inclusive growth.

The report entitled Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines looks at the innovations as well as gaps in policy and financing of climate change programs since the country adopted the Climate Change Act four years ago.

The report – done at the request of, and in close collaboration with the Climate Change Commission (CCC) and the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) – provides detailed analysis and recommendations on how the country could accelerate reforms for managing the growing climate change impacts and increasing greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to poverty reduction.

The report provides recommendations along three themes:

• Strengthening the planning, execution, and financing framework for climate change;

• Enhancing leadership and accountability through monitoring, evaluation, and review of climate change policies and activities; and

• Building the country’s capacity and managing change

The report also underscores that while the government builds resilience to climate change impacts, it should also ensure that the country’s emissions of greenhouse gases (e.g. methane and carbon dioxide) remain in check.

Though a minor contributor to climate change globally, the Philippines’ greenhouse gas emissions rank in the top 25 percent among low- and middle-income countries, with significant increases projected in the coming decades. Emissions from the energy sector are projected to quadruple by 2030, with the transport sector expected to double its emissions.

In 2009, Congress passed the Climate Change Act creating the CCC to develop policies and coordinate government programs on climate change. The CCC in turn developed the National Climate Change Action Plan that serves as a road map for all climate change programs in the Philippines. “Incorporating the climate change action plan into the national and local development process, supported by properly-targeted public investments, is important to ensure that climate change priorities are translated into concrete actions on the ground,” said Secretary Sering .

Coastal communities are most at risk to climate-related weather events.

According to Budget Secretary Florencio B. Abad , appropriations for climate change programs have been increasing at an average of 26 percent yearly since 2009, outpacing the growth of the national budget which has been growing at around 6 percent.

“Climate change has a direct and immediate impact on development. As it stands, the Philippines is already in the path of major weather disturbances that damage property and critical infrastructure. More urgent however is the fact that these weather patterns frequently jeopardize the welfare of communities in high-risk areas. Recognizing this, the Aquino administration remains committed to providing sufficient budgetary support for programs and projects that mitigate the effects of climate change in the country,” said Secretary Abad .

Last week, the World Bank launched a global report titled Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience . The study says that climate change-related impacts are projected to increase in the coming decades, threatening in particular:

• Coastal populations: Climate change is expected to lead to more intense typhoons, higher sea levels, and storm surges. Storm surges are projected to affect about 14 percent of the total population and 42 percent of coastal populations. Informal settlements, which account for 45 percent of the Philippines’ urban population, are particularly vulnerable to floods due to less secure infrastructure, reduced access to clean water, and lack of health insurance.

• Farming and fishing: Climate-related impacts are expected to reduce agricultural productivity in the Philippines. Also, warming oceans and ocean acidification affect coral reefs which serve as feeding and spawning grounds for many fish species that support the livelihoods of fisher folks.

World Bank Country Director Motoo Konishi said that implementing the country’s climate change programs with increased financing, improved design, and greater focus and coordination contributes significantly to the country’s development goals.

He said that promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency, for instance, boosts energy security and can lower energy costs, thus improving the country’s competitiveness. In agriculture, adaptation activities like conserving water and improving water quality will enhance food security.

“Labor-intensive activities like developing climate-resilient farming and retrofitting infrastructure for flood control will build resilience while increasing job opportunities, especially for the poor. Climate change adaptation is very important in achieving inclusive growth,” said Mr. Konishi .

Your Questions Answered on Coping with Climate Change in the Philippines

Press release.

• BLOG Jun 18, 2013 Filipinos, how are you adapting to climate change? You ask, we answer
• INFOGRAPHIC Jun 19, 2013 What Climate Change Means for Africa and Asia
• REPORT OVERVIEW Jun 25, 2013 Getting a Grip on Climate Change in the Philippines

This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. To learn more about cookies, click here .

• Daily Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Philippine Cities
• Asian Cities Weather Forecast
• Weather Outlook Selected Tourist Areas
• Weekly Weather Outlook
• Weather Advisory
• Terminal Aerodome Forecast
• Airways and Terminal Forecast
• High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
• Gale Warning
• Daily Temperature
• Flood Information
• Dam Information
• Tropical Cyclone Advisory --> Tropical Cyclone Advisory Active -->
• Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Tropical Cyclone Bulletin -->
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping -->
• Forecast Storm Surge
• Tropical Cyclone Warning for Agriculture
• TC-Threat Potential Forecast
• Tropical Cyclone Associated Rainfall
• Annual Report on Philippine Tropical Cyclones
• Tropical Cyclone Preliminary Report
• About Tropical Cyclone
• Daily Rainfall and Temperature
• Monthly Monitoring Products
• Southeast Asia Climate Monitoring
• Climate Forum
• 10 Day Climate Forecast
• Sub Seasonal
• Seasonal Forecast
• Specialized Forecast
• Climate Advisories
• CliMap v2.0
• Statistical Downscaling
• Climate Data
• Farm Weather Forecast
• Weekend/Special Farm Weather Forecast
• Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information
• Monthly Philippine Agro-Climatic Review and Outlook
• Impact Assessment for Agriculture
• Telescoping and Stargazing
• Astronomy in the Philippines
• Planetarium
• Astronomical Observatory
• Time Service
• Philippine Standard Time
• Astronomical Diary
• Northern Luzon
• National Capital Region
• Southern Luzon

Introduction

Climate change is happening now. Evidences being seen support the fact that the change cannot simply be explained by natural variation. The most recent scientific assessments have confirmed that this warming of the climate system since the mid-20th century is most likely to be due to human activities; and thus, is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and land use change. Current warming has increasingly posed quite considerable challenges to man and the environment, and will continue to do so in the future. Presently, some autonomous adaptation is taking place, but we need to consider a more pro-active adaptation planning in order to ensure sustainable development.

What does it take to ensure that adaptation planning has a scientific basis? Firstly, we need to be able to investigate the potential consequences of anthropogenic or human induced climate change and to do this, a plausible future climate based on a reliable and accurate baseline (or present) climate must be constructed. This is what climate scientists call a climate change scenario. It is a projection of the response of the climate system to future emissions or concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and is simulated using climate models. Essentially, it describes possible future changes in climate variables (such as temperatures, rainfall, storminess, winds, etc.) based on baseline climatic conditions.

The climate change scenarios outputs (projections) are an important step forward in improving our understanding of our complex climate, particularly in the future. These show how our local climate could change dramatically should the global community fail to act towards effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Change Scenarios

As has been previously stated, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC). These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs), which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop climate change scenarios are run using different forcings such as the changing greenhouse gas concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the range of plausible future climate. These emission scenarios cover a range of demographic, societal, economic and technological storylines. They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways. Table 1 presents the four different storylines (A1, A2, B1 and B2) as defined in the IPCC SRES.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect). We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia), the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines presented in this Report, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social equity.

To start the climate simulations or model runs, outputs (climate information) from the relatively coarse resolution GCMs are used to provide high resolution (using finer grid boxes, normally 10km-100km) climate details, through the use of downscaling techniques. Downscaling is a method that derives local to regional scale (10km-100km x 10km-100km grids) information from larger-scale models (150km-300km x 150km-300km grids) as shown in Fig.1. The smaller the grid, the finer is the resolution giving more detailed climate information.

The climate simulations presented in this report used boundary data that were from the ECHAM4 and HadCM3Q0 (the regional climate models used in the PRECIS model software).

How were the downscaling techniques applied using the PRECIS model?

To run regional climate models, boundary conditions are needed in order to produce local climate scenarios. These boundary conditions are outputs of the GCMs. For the PRECIS model, the following boundary data and control runs were used:

For the high-range scenario, the GCM boundary data used was from ECHAM4. This is the 4th generation coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which uses a comprehensive parameterization package developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. Downscaling was to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km; thus, allowing more detailed regional information of the projected climate. Simulated baseline climate used for evaluation of the models capacity of reproducing present climate was the 1971-2000 model run. Its outputs were compared with the 1971-2000 observed values.

For the mid-range scenario, the GCM boundary data was from the HadCM3Q0 version 3 of the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre. Downscaling was also to a grid resolution of 25km x 25km and the same validation process was undertaken.

For running the low-range scenario, the same ECHAM4 model was used. However, the validation process was only for the period of 1989 to 2000 because the available GCM boundary data in the model was limited to this period.

The simulations for all 3 scenarios were for three periods; 1971 to 2000, 2020 and 2050. The period 1971 to 2000 simulation is referred to as the baseline climate, outputs of which are used to evaluate the models capacity of reproducing present climate (in other words, the control run). By comparing the outputs (i.e., temperature and rainfall) with the observed values for the 1971 to 2000 period, the models ability to realistically represent the regional climatological features within the country is verified. The differences between the outputs and the observed values are called the biases of the model. The 2020 and 2050 outputs are then mathematically corrected, based on the comparison of the models performance.

The main outputs of the simulations for the three SRES scenarios (high-range, mid-range and low-range) are the following:

• projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature
• projected changes in minimum and maximum temperatures
• projected changes in seasonal rainfall and
• projected frequency of extreme events

The seasonal variations are as follows:

• the DJF (December, January, February or northeast monsoon locally known as amihan) season
• the MAM (March, April, May or summer) season
• the JJA (June, July, August or southwest monsoon season, or habagat) season and
• the SON (September, October, November or transition from southwest to northeast monsoon) season

On the other hand, extreme events are defined as follows:

• extreme temperature (assessed as number of days with maximum temperature greater than 35°C, following the threshold values used in other countries in the Asia Pacific region)
• dry days (assessed as number of dry days or day with rainfall equal or less than 2.5mm/day, following the World Meteorological Organization standard definition of dry days used in a number of countries) and
• extreme rainfall (assessed as number of days with daily rainfall greater than 300mm, which for wet tropical areas, like the Philippines, is considerably intense that could trigger disastrous events).

How were the uncertainties in the modeling simulations dealt with?

Modeling of our future climate always entails uncertainties. These are inherent in each step in the simulations/modeling done because of a number of reasons. Firstly, emissions scenarios are uncertain. Predicting emissions is largely dependent on how we can predict human behavior, such as changes in population, economic growth, technology, energy availability and national and international policies (which include predicting results of the international negotiations on reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Secondly, current understanding of the carbon cycle and of sources and sinks of non-carbon greenhouse gases are still incomplete. Thirdly, consideration of very complex feedback processes in the climate system in the climate models used can also contribute to the uncertainties in the outputs generated as these could not be adequately represented in the models.

But while it is difficult to predict global greenhouse gas emission rates far into the future, it is stressed that projections for up to 2050 show little variation between different emission scenarios, as these near-term changes in climate are strongly affected by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted and will stay in the atmosphere for the next 50 years. Hence, for projections for the near-term until 2065, outputs of the mid-range emission scenario are presented in detail in this Report.

Ideally, numerous climate models and a number of the emission scenarios provided in the SRES should be used in developing the climate change scenarios in order to account for the limitations in each of the models used, and the numerous ways global greenhouse gas emissions would go. The different model outputs should then be analyzed to calculate the median of the future climate projections in the selected time slices. By running more climate models for each emission scenarios, the higher is the statistical confidence in the resulting projections as these constitute the ensemble representing the median values of the model outputs.

The climate projections for the three emission scenarios were obtained using the PRECIS model only due to several constraints and limitations. These constraints and limitations are:

Access to climate models: at the start, PAGASA had not accessed climate models due to computing and technical capacity requirements needed to run them;

Time constraints: the use of currently available computers required substantial computing time to run the models (measured in weeks and months). This had been partly addressed under the capacity upgrading initiatives being implemented by the MDGF Joint Programme which include procurement of more powerful computers and acquiring new downscaling techniques. Improved equipment and new techniques have reduced the computing time requirements to run the models. However, additional time is still needed to run the models using newly acquired downscaling techniques; and

The PAGASA strives to improve confidence in the climate projections and is continuously exerting efforts to upgrade its technical capacities and capabilities. Models are run as soon as these are acquired with the end-goal of producing an ensemble of the projections. Updates on the projections, including comparisons with the current results, will be provided as soon as these are available.

What is the level of confidence in the climate projections?

The IPCC stresses that there is a large degree of uncertainty in predicting what the future world will be despite taking into account all reasonable future developments. Nevertheless, there is high confidence in the occurrence of global warming due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by humans, as affirmed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Global climate simulations done to project climate scenarios until the end of the 21st century indicate that, although there are vast differences between the various scenarios, the values of temperature increase begin to diverge only after the middle of this century (shown in Fig.3). The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases (in particular, that of carbon dioxide) already in the atmosphere is the reason for this behavior of this climate response to largely varying emission scenarios.

Model outputs that represent the plausible local climate scenarios in this Report are indicative to the extent that they reflect the large-scale changes (in the regional climate model used) modified by the projected local conditions in the country.

It also should be stressed further that confidence in the climate change information depends on the variable being considered (e.g., temperature increase, rainfall change, extreme event indices, etc.). In all the model runs regardless of emission scenarios used, there is greater confidence in the projections of mean temperature than that of the others. On the other hand, projections of rainfall and extreme events entail consideration of convective processes which are inherently complex, and thus, limiting the degree of confidence in the outputs.

What are the possible applications of these model-generated climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are commonly required in climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments to provide alternative views of future conditions considered likely to affect society, systems and sectors, including a quantification of climate risks, challenges and opportunities. climate scenario outputs could be used in any of the following:.

• to illustrate projected climate change in a given administrative region/province
• to provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies
• to communicate potential consequences of climate change (e.g., specifying a future changed climate to estimate potential shifts in say, vegetation, species threatened or at risk of extinction, etc.) and
• for strategic planning (e.g., quantifying projected sea level rise and other climate changes for the design of coastal infrastructure/defenses such as sea walls, etc.)

Current Climate and Observed Trends

Current climate change in the philippines.

The world has increasingly been concerned with the changes in our climate due largely to adverse impacts being seen not just globally, but also in regional, national and even, local scales. In 1988, the United Nations established the IPCC to evaluate the risks of climate change and provide objective information to governments and various communities such as the academe, research organizations, private sector, etc. The IPCC has successively done and published its scientific assessment reports on climate change, the first of which was released in 1990. These reports constitute consensus documents produced by numerous lead authors, contributing authors and review experts representing Country Parties of the UNFCCC, including invited eminent scientists in the field from all over the globe.

In 2007, the IPCC made its strongest statement yet on climate change in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), when it concluded that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the warming during the last 50 years or so (e.g., since the mid-20th century) is due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities. It is also very likely that changes in the global climate system will continue into the future, and that these will be larger than those seen in our recent past (IPCC, 2007a).

Fig.4 shows the 0.74 C increase in global mean temperature during the last 150 years compared with the 1961-1990 global average. It is the steep increase in temperature since the mid-20th century that is causing worldwide concern, particularly in terms of increasing vulnerability of poor developing countries, like the Philippines, to adverse impacts of even incremental changes in temperatures.

The IPCC AR4 further states that the substantial body of evidence that support this most recent warming includes rising surface temperature, sea level rise and decrease in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere (shown in Fig.5).

Additionally, there have been changes in extreme events globally and these include;

• widespread changes in extreme temperatures observed;
• cold days, cold nights and frost becoming less frequent;
• hot days, hot nights and heat waves becoming more frequent; and
• observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

However, there are differences between and within regions. For instance, in the Southeast Asia region which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, among others, temperature increases have been observed; although magnitude varies from one country to another. Changes in rainfall patterns, characteristically defined by changes in monsoon performance, have also been noted. Analysis of trends of extreme daily events (temperatures and rainfall) in the Asia Pacific region (including Australia and New Zealand, and parts of China and Japan) also indicate spatial coherence in the increase of hot days, warm nights and heat waves, and the decrease of cold days, cold nights and frost; although, there is no definite direction of rainfall change across the entire region (Manton et. al., 2001).

Current Climate Trends in the Philippines

The Philippines, like most parts of the globe, has also exhibited increasing temperatures as shown in Fig.6 below. The graph of observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the 1971-2000 normal values) during the period 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of 0.648 C or an average of 0.0108 C per year-increase.

The increase in maximum (or daytime) temperatures and minimum (or night time) temperatures are shown in Fig.7 and Fig.8. During the last 60 years, maximum and minimum temperatures are seen to have increased by 0.36 ºC and 1.0°C, respectively.

Analysis of trends of tropical cyclone occurrence or passage within the so-called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR per year. The trend shows a high variability over the decades but there is no indication of increase in the frequency. However, there is a very slight increase in the number of tropical cyclones with maximum sustained winds of greater than 150kph and above (typhoon category) being exhibited during El NiÑo event (See Fig.10).

Moreover, the analysis on tropical cyclone passage over the three main islands (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao), the 30-year running means show that there has been a slight increase in the Visayas during the 1971 to 2000 as compared with the 1951 to 1980 and 1960-1990 periods (See Fig.11).

To detect trends in extreme daily events, indices had been developed and used. Analysis of extreme daily maximum and minimum temperatures (hot-days index and cold-nights index, respectively) show there are statistically significant increasing number of hot days but decreasing number of cool nights (as shown in Fig.12 and Fig.13). 

However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15).

The rates of increases or decreases in the trends are point values (i.e., specific values in the synoptic weather stations only) and are available at PAGASA, if needed.

Climate Projections

Projections on seasonal temperature increase and rainfall change, and total frequency of extreme events nationally and in the provinces using the mid-range scenario outputs are presented in this chapter. A comparison of these values with the high- and low- range scenarios in 2020 and 2050 is provided in the technical annexes.

It is to be noted that all the projected changes are relative to the baseline (1971-2000) climate. For example, a projected 1.0 C-increase in 2020 in a province means that 1.0 C is added to the baseline mean temperature value of the province as indicated in the table to arrive at the value of projected mean temperature. Therefore, if the baseline mean temperature is 27.8 C, then the projected mean temperature in the future is (27.8 C + 1.0 C) or 28.8 C.

In a similar manner, for say, a +25%-rainfall change in a province, it means that 25% of the seasonal mean rainfall value in the said province (from table of baseline climate) is added to the mean value. Thus, if the baseline seasonal rainfall is 900mm, then projected rainfall in the future is 900mm + 225mm or 1125mm.

This means that we are already experiencing some of the climate change shown in the findings under the mid-range scenario, as we are now into the second decade of the century. Classification of climate used the Corona's four climate types (Types I to IV), based on monthly rainfall received during the year. A province is considered to have Type I climate if there is a distinct dry and a wet season; wet from June to November and dry, the rest of the year. Type II climate is when there is no dry period at all throughout the year, with a pronounced wet season from November to February. On the other hand, Type III climate is when there is a short dry season, usually from February to April, and Type IV climate is when the rainfall is almost evenly distributed during the whole year. The climate classification in the Philippines is shown in Fig.16.

Seasonal Temperature Change

All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in the relatively warmer summer months. Mean temperatures in all areas in the Philippines are expected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 C to 2.2 C in 2050. Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in these time slices; and these increases during the four seasons are quite consistent in all parts of the country. Largest temperature increase is projected during the summer (MAM) season.

Seasonal Rainfall Change

Generally, there is reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country during the summer (MAM) season. However, rainfall increase is likely during the southwest monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON) season in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, and also, during the northeast monsoon (DJF) season, particularly, in provinces/areas characterized as Type II climate in 2020 and 2050. There is however, generally decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by 2050.

There are varied trends in the magnitude and direction of the rainfall changes, both in 2020 and 2050. What the projections clearly indicate are the likely increase in the performance of the southwest and the northeast monsoons in the provinces exposed to these climate controls when they prevail over the country. Moreover, the usually wet seasons become wetter with the usually dry seasons becoming also drier; and these could lead to more occurrences of floods and dry spells/droughts, respectively.

Extreme Temperature Events

Hot temperatures will continue to become more frequent in the future. Fig.19 shows that the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C (following value used by other countries in the Asia Pacific region in extreme events analysis) is increasing in 2020 and 2050.

Extreme Rainfall Events

Heavy daily rainfall will continue to become more frequent, extreme rainfall is projected to increase in Luzon and Visayas only, but number of dry days is expected to increase in all parts of the country in 2020 and 2050. Figures 20 and 21 show the projected increase in number of dry days (with dry day defined as that with rainfall less than 2.5mm) and the increase in number of days with extreme rainfall (defined as daily rainfall exceeding 300 mm) compared with the observed (baseline) values, respectively.

Climate Projections for Provinces

Impacts of climate change.

Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. Its adverse impacts are already being seen and may intensify exponentially over time if nothing is done to reduce further emissions of greenhouse gases. Decisively dealing NOW with climate change is key to ensuring sustainable development, poverty eradication and safeguarding economic growth. Scientific assessments indicate that the cost of inaction now will be more costly in the future. Thus, economic development needs to be shifted to a low-carbon emission path.

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted as the basis for a global response to the problem. The Philippines signed the UNFCCC on 12 June 1992 and ratified the international treaty on 2 August 1994. Presently, the Convention enjoys near-universal membership, with 194 Country Parties.

Recognizing that the climate system is a shared resource which is greatly affected by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the UNFCCC has set out an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. Its ultimate objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.

Countries are actively discussing and negotiating ways to deal with the climate change problem within the UNFCCC using two central approaches. The first task is to address the root cause by reducing greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it will require radical changes in the way many societies are organized, especially in respect to fossil fuel use, industry operations, land use, and development. Within the climate change arena, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is called mitigation.

The second task in responding to climate change is to manage its impacts. Future impacts on the environment and society are now inevitable, owing to the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere from past decades of industrial and other human activities, and to the added amounts from continued emissions over the next few decades until such time as mitigation policies and actions become effective. We are therefore committed to changes in the climate. Taking steps to cope with the changed climate conditions both in terms of reducing adverse impacts and taking advantage of potential benefits is called adaptation.

What if the emissions are less or greater?

Responses of the local climate to the mid-range compared to the high- and low-range scenarios are as shown in Fig. 22 below. Although there are vast differences in the projections, the so-called temperature anomalies or difference in surface temperature increase begin to diverge only in the middle of the 21st century. As has already been stated, the climate in the next 30 to 40 years is greatly influenced by past greenhouse gas emissions. The long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, with the exception of methane (with a lifetime of only 13 years), will mean that it will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize even if mitigation measures are put in place, not withstanding that in the near future, there could be some off-setting between sulfate aerosols (cooling effect) and the greenhouse gas concentrations (warming effect).

Likely impacts of Climate Change

A warmer world is certain to impact on systems and sectors; although, magnitude of impacts will depend on factors such as sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity to climate risks. In most cases, likely impacts will be adverse. However, there could be instances when likely impacts present opportunities for potential benefits as in the case of the so-called carbon fertilization effect in which increased carbon dioxide could lead to increased yield provided temperatures do not exceed threshold values for a given crop/cultivar.

Water Resources

In areas/regions where rainfall is projected to decrease, there will be water stress (both in quantity and quality), which in turn, will most likely cascade into more adverse impacts, particularly on forestry, agriculture and livelihood, health, and human settlement. Large decreases in rainfall and longer drier periods will affect the amount of water in watersheds and dams which provide irrigation services to farmers, especially those in rain fed areas, thereby, limiting agricultural production. Likewise, energy production from dams could also be rendered insufficient in those areas where rainfall is projected to decrease, and thus, could largely affect the energy sufficiency program of the country. Design of infrastructure, particularly of dams, will need to be re-visited to ensure that these will not be severely affected by the projected longer drier periods.

In areas where rainfall could be intense during wet periods, flooding events would follow and may pose danger to human settlements and infrastructure, in terms of landslides and mudslides, most especially, in geologically weak areas. Additionally, these flooding events could impact severely on public infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, including classrooms, evacuation centers, and hospitals.

Adaptive capacity is enhanced when impact and vulnerability assessments are used as the basis of strategic and long-term planning for adaptation. Assessments would indicate areas where critical water shortages can be expected leading to possible reduction of water available for domestic consumption, less irrigation service delivery, and possibly, decreased energy generation in dams. Note that the adverse impacts would cascade, so that long-term pro-active planning for these possible impacts is imperative in order to be able to respond effectively, and avoid maladaptations. A number of adaptation strategies should be considered. Among the wide array of cost effective options are rational water management, planning to avoid mismatch between water supply and demand through policies, upgrading/rehabilitation of dams where these are cost-effective, changes in cropping patterns in agricultural areas, establishing rain water collection facilities, where possible, and early warning systems.

Changes in rainfall regimes and patterns resulting to increase/decrease in water use and temperature increases could lead to a change in the forests ecosystem, particularly in areas where the rains are severely limited, and can no longer provide favorable conditions for certain highly sensitive species. Some of our forests could face die-backs. Additionally, drier periods and warmer temperatures, especially during the warm phase of El Nino events, could cause forest fires. A very likely threat to communities that largely depend on the ecological services provided by forests is that they may face the need to alter their traditions and livelihoods. This change in practices and behavior can lead to further degradation of the environment as they resort to more extensive agricultural production in already degraded areas.

Adverse impacts on forestry areas and resources could be expected to multiply in a future warmer world. The value of impact and vulnerability assessments could not be underscored. These assessments would help decision makers and stakeholders identify the best option to address the different impacts on forest areas, watersheds and agroforestry. Indigenous communities have to plan for climate-resilient alternative livelihoods. Thus, it is highly important to plan for rational forest management, particularly, in protected areas and in ancestral domains. One of the more important issues to consider is how to safeguard livelihoods in affected communities so as not to further exacerbate land degradation. Early warning systems in this sector will play a very important role in forest protection through avoidance and control/containment of forest fires.

Agriculture

Agriculture in the country could be severely affected by temperature changes coupled with changes in rain regimes and patterns. Crops have been shown to suffer decreases in yields whenever temperatures have exceeded threshold values and possibly result to spikelet sterility, as in the case of rice. The reduction in crop yield would remain unmitigated or even aggravated if management technologies are not put in place. Additionally, in areas where rain patterns change or when extreme events such as floods or droughts happen more often, grain and other agricultural produce could suffer shortfalls in the absence of effective and timely interventions. Tropical cyclones, particularly if there will be an increase in numbers and/or strength will continue to exert pressure on agricultural production.

Moreover, temperature increases coupled with rainfall changes could affect the incidence/outbreaks of pests and diseases, both in plants and animals. The pathways through which diseases and pests could be triggered and rendered most favorable to spread are still largely unknown. It is therefore important that research focus on these issues.

In the fisheries sub-sector, migration of fish to cooler and deeper waters would force the fisher folks to travel further from the coasts in order to increase their catch. Seaweed production, already being practiced as an adaptation to climate change in a number of poor and depressed coastal communities could also be impacted adversely.

Decreased yields and inadequate job opportunities in the agricultural sector could lead to migration and shifts in population, resulting to more pressure in already depressed urban areas, particularly in mega cities. Food security will largely be affected, especially if timely, effective and efficient interventions are not put in place. Insufficient food supply could further lead to more malnutrition, higher poverty levels, and possibly, heightened social unrest and conflict in certain areas in the country, and even among the indigenous tribes.

A careful assessment of primary and secondary impacts in this sector, particularly, in production systems and livelihoods will go a long way in avoiding food security and livelihood issues. Proactive planning (short- and long-term adaptation measures) will help in attaining poverty eradication, sufficient nutrition and secure livelihoods goals. There is a wide cross-section of adaptation strategies that could be put in place, such as horizontal and vertical diversification of crops, farmer field schools which incorporate use of weather/climate information in agricultural operations, including policy environment for subsidies and climate-friendly agricultural technologies, weather-based insurance, and others. To date, there has not been much R&D that has been done on inland and marine fisheries technologies, a research agenda on resilient marine sector could form part of long-term planning for this subsector.

Coastal Resources

The countrys coastal resources are highly vulnerable due to its extensive coastlines. Sea level rise is highly likely in a changing climate, and low-lying islands will face permanent inundation in the future. The combined effects of continued temperature increases, changes in rainfall and accelerated sea level rise, and tropical cyclone occurrences including the associated storm surges would expose coastal communities to higher levels of threat to life and property. The livelihood of these communities would also be threatened in terms of further stress to their fishing opportunities, loss of productive agricultural lands and saltwater intrusion, among others.

Impact and vulnerability assessment as well as adaptation planning for these coastal areas are of high priority. Adaptation measures range from physical structures such as sea walls where they still are cost-effective, to development/revision of land use plans using risk maps as the basis, to early warning systems for severe weather, including advisories on storm surge probabilities, as well as planning for and developing resilient livelihoods where traditional fishing/ agriculture are no longer viable.

Human health is one of the most vital sectors which will be severely affected by climate change. Incremental increases in temperatures and rain regimes could trigger a number of adverse impacts; in particular, the outbreak and spread of water-based and vector-borne diseases leading to higher morbidity and mortality; increased incidence of pulmonary illnesses among young children and cardiovascular diseases among the elderly. In addition, there could also be increased health risk from poor air quality especially in urbanized areas.

Surveillance systems and infrastructure for monitoring and prevention of epidemics could also be under severe stress when there is a confluence of circumstances. Hospitals and clinics, and evacuation centers and resettlement areas could also be severely affected under increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events.

Moreover, malnutrition is expected to become more severe with more frequent occurrences of extreme events that disrupt food supply and provision of health services. The services of the Department of Health will be severely tested unless early and periodic assessments of plausible impacts of climate change are undertaken.

Scientific assessments have indicated that the Earth is now committed to continued and faster warming unless drastic global mitigation action is put in place the soonest. The likely impacts of climate change are numerous and most could seriously hinder the realization of targets set under the Millennium Development Goals; and thus, sustainable development. Under the UNFCCC, Country Parties have common but differentiated responsibilities. All Country Parties share the common responsibility of protecting the climate system but must shoulder different responsibilities. This means that the developed countries including those whose economies are in transition (or the so-called Annex 1 Parties) have an obligation to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions based on their emissions at 1990 levels and provide assistance to developing countries (or the so-called non-Annex 1 Parties) to adapt to impacts of climate change.

In addition, the commitment to mitigate or reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by countries which share the responsibility of having historically caused this global problem, as agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol, is dictated by the imperative to avoid what climate scientists refer to as the climate change tipping point. Tipping point is defined as the maximum temperature increase that could happen within the century, which could lead to sudden and dramatic changes to some of the major geophysical elements of the Earth. The effects of these changes could be varied from a dramatic rise in sea levels that could flood coastal regions to widespread crop failures. But, it still is possible to avoid them with cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, both in the developed and developing countries, in particular, those which are now fast approaching the emission levels seen in rich countries.

In the Philippines, there are now a number of assisted climate change adaptation programmes and projects that are being implemented. Among these are the Millennium Development Goals Fund 1656: Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change funded by the Government of Spain, the Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (which aims to develop the resiliency and test adaptation strategies that will develop the resiliency of farms and natural resource management to the effects of climate change) funded by the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) through the World Bank, the Adaptation to Climate Change and Conservation of Biodiversity Project and the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (envisioned to develop the adaptation capacity of communities), both funded by the GTZ, Germany.

• SuperBalita Cebu
• SuperBalita Davao
• Palarong Pambansa
• Board Exam Results

Editorial: Climate change

WHETHER you like it or not, climate change is happening. It is impossible to be skeptical about it when it is happening right in front of our eyes. We don’t need photos and stories of melting polar ice caps to be informed of the changing climate. We can see it with the recent changes in the Philippines alone. When typhoons enter the southern portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility, its path would usually go up towards the Visayas or Luzon. However, in the last few years, we saw how typhoons have started to make landfall in Davao Region, though mostly in Compostela Valley or Davao Oriental. In 2012, Typhoon Pablo made landfall in Davao Oriental while in 2013, Typhoon Crising struck Davao del Sur. This year, we saw how Tropical Depression Chedeng, which later weakened to a low pressure area, made landfall in Malita, Davao Occidental. According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Davao the last time Malita, Occidental was struck by a typhoon was in 1970 by Typhoon Titang. Usually tagged as among the typhoon free areas in the Philippines, this may not be the case in the near future for Davao Region. Once Mother Nature starts changing things, it will seem impossible to revert it back to how it was. What needs to be done right now is enact programs or initiatives that will allow the different sectors of the society to adapt to climate change. For one, it is commendable that the Department of Agriculture, Department of Science and Technology, and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management are making efforts to create programs that will improve the resiliency of the Filipinos. The Department of Education has also started to make steps to integrate climate change adaptation to the curriculum. However, there is much to be done in terms of making the public known of what they are doing. Not everyone is aware of the efforts being done to help people adapt to a change that will soon hit every one of us. There is also a need to ramp up the information and education campaign on climate change for the public to know and understand what it is and what they can do about it. If we do not do something about it now, how can we survive when the effects of climate change are at its peak?

Branded Content

Editorial: Climate change is already here. 2020 could be your last chance to stop an apocalypse

• Copy Link URL Copied!

The world is drifting steadily toward a climate catastrophe. For many of us, that’s been clear for a few years or maybe a decade or even a few decades.

But others have known that a reckoning was coming for much longer . A Swedish scientist first calculated in 1896 that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere could lead to warmer global temperatures. By the 1930s, scientists were measuring the increase , and in the late 1960s, they had documented the impact of melting ice in Antarctica . By 1977, Exxon-Mobil had recognized its own role in the warming of the ocean, the polar ice melt and the rising sea level.

For obvious reasons, Exxon-Mobil launched a massive public disinformation campaign to muddy the science and downplay the danger. But in retrospect, it needn’t have bothered. Because even after the facts became incontestably clear, the world did shockingly little to protect itself. In the first 17 years after the Kyoto protocol committed its signatories to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, global emissions continued to rise. Decades of studied ignorance, political cowardice, cynical denialism and irresponsible dithering have allowed the problem to grow deeper and immeasurably harder to solve.

A three-part series on climate change

Part 2: Wealthy countries are responsible for climate change, but it’s the poor who will suffer most Part 3: Surviving climate change means an end to burning fossil fuels. Prepare yourself for sacrifices

But today, we are at an important turning point. The changing climate is no longer an abstract threat lurking in our distant future — it is upon us. We feel it. We see it. In our longer and deeper droughts and our more brutal hurricanes and raging, hyper-destructive wildfires. And with that comes a new urgency, and a new opportunity, to act.

Climate change is now simply impossible to ignore. The temperature reached a record-breaking 90 degrees in Anchorage this summer and an unprecedented 108 degrees in Paris. We can watch glaciers melting and collapsing on the web; ice losses in Antarctica have tripled since 2012 so that sea levels are rising faster today than at any time in the last quarter-century. Human migration patterns are already changing in Africa and Latin America as extreme weather events disrupt crop patterns, harm harvests and force farmers off their land, sending climate refugees to Europe and the United States.

It’s often difficult to attribute specific events to climate change but, clearly, strange things are happening. In India, entire cities are running out of water, thanks, scientists say, to a dangerous combination of mismanagement and climate change. In Syria, the civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than 11 million is believed by many scientists to have been sparked at least in part by climate-related drought and warming. Closer to home, two invasive, non-native mosquito species that have the potential to transmit viruses, including dengue, Zika and yellow fever have recently been found in several California cities.

According to NASA, 18 of the 19 warmest years ever recorded have occurred since 2000. The last five years have been the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880. July set an all-time record .

Here’s another reason we’re at a turning point (at least in the United States): An election is coming.

For three years, Americans have been living under the willfully blind, anti-scientific, business-coddling rule of President Trump, who has stubbornly chosen climate denial over rationality. We now have an opportunity to resoundingly reject his policies by voting him out of office, along with congressional Republicans who enable him. There are plenty of reasons to fight for Trump’s defeat in November 2020, but his deeply irresponsible climate policies — including moving to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement, roll back Barack Obama’s emission limits on coal-fired plants, rescind rules governing methane emissions and relax national fuel emission standards — are among the strongest.

It is late — terribly late — for action, but with some luck, perhaps it is not too late to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change. In nations across the world, people finally recognize climate change as a top or very serious threat, according to the Pew Research Center. In the U.S., even Republican voters — and especially younger ones — are waking up to the realities and dangers of a warming planet.

Fewer and fewer people today doubt the overwhelming scientific evidence: By burning fossil fuels for energy, humans have added so much carbon (and other greenhouse gases) to the atmosphere that we are changing nature itself, imperiling the delicate interdependence among species and putting our own survival at risk. Scientists say with certainty that we must radically transform how we make and use energy within a decade if we are to have any chance of mitigating the damage.

There are plenty of reasons to fight for Trump’s defeat in November 2020, but his deeply irresponsible climate policies ... are among the strongest.

But figuring out what must be done at this late stage is complicated. There are a wide range of emissions sources and many ways to approach them, ranging from the microsteps that can be taken by individuals — Do you have to take that car trip? That airline flight? — to the much more important macro-policies that must be adopted by nations.

Globally, 25% of greenhouse gas emissions today comes from burning fossil fuels to create heat and electricity, mostly for residential and commercial buildings; another 23% is the result of burning fuel for industrial uses. And 14% comes from transportation.

All that burning of carbon fuels needs to end; yet unless policies and politics change dramatically, it won’t end. Even in this time of heightened clarity, two-thirds of new passenger vehicles bought in the U.S. last year were gas-guzzling pickup trucks and SUVs. Those SUVs will be on the road an average of eight years, and the pickups for more than 13 years, as the time to address the climate problem slips away. Blame for this falls not just on consumers, but also on the manufacturers and the government, which has done too little to disincentivize the driving of gas-powered cars.

In the years since Kyoto, the world has undertaken significant efforts to ratchet down energy consumption, curtail coal burning (the dirtiest of the fossil fuels) and turn to renewable energy sources, yet overall emissions have increased. Today there are 7.7 billion people on the planet — twice as many as 50 years ago — and more people means more demand for power, especially in fast-growing countries such as India and China. Last year saw a global acceleration of emissions, as total carbon levels in the atmosphere reached 414.8 parts per million in May, the highest recorded in 3 million years. The richer human society becomes, it seems, the more we poison the world.

Editorial: Why we wrote our series on climate change

The Los Angeles Times editorial board has written about climate change for years. Here’s why we thought this was the right moment for a bigger, broader series of editorials on the subject.

At this point, the mission is no longer to avert or reverse climate change, but to mitigate its worst effects (by continuing to reduce emissions and slow warming) and to adapt to others. Adaptation might mean retreating from coastal developments as the seas rise or elevating roads and installing flooding pumps (as the city of Miami is already doing), or creating carbon sinks to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, all while continuing to try to curtail further emissions.

None of this is cheap or easy, but neither is the alternative. 2017 ranks as the costliest year for severe weather events and climate disasters worldwide; in the U.S. there was more than $300 billion in cumulative damage, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Obviously, the cost of dealing with inundated coastal areas — home to as many as 650 million people , or 8% of the world’s population — will be extraordinarily high . And that’s only one of the dangers on the horizon. We can expect people to be displaced by drought, river flooding, hurricanes and typhoons. Parts of the world can expect more food shortages, which some experts believe will lead in turn to political instability, civil unrest and mass migration. The U.S. military rightly refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier.”

Fighting the rise in temperature and sea levels will be tough. Our democracy doesn’t encourage politicians to take bold stances; our economic system doesn’t encourage companies to sacrifice profits for the common good. And we humans are understandably disinclined to live differently or to make sacrifices. But we must stop dawdling and forge ahead if we are to protect ourselves and our planet.

This is Part 1 of a three-part series on climate change.

Part 2: Wealthy countries are responsible for climate change, but it’s the poor who will suffer most

Part 3: Surviving climate change means an end to burning fossil fuels. Prepare yourself for sacrifices

More to read.

Editorial: If 10 straight months of record-breaking heat isn’t a climate emergency, what is?

April 17, 2024

Editorial: On climate change, world leaders are saying one thing and doing another

Nov. 27, 2023

Opinion: To shut down the supply side of climate change, start here

Oct. 16, 2023

A cure for the common opinion

Get thought-provoking perspectives with our weekly newsletter.

You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.

The Los Angeles Times’ editorial board determines the positions of The Times as an institution. It operates separately from the newsroom. You can read more about the board’s mission and its members at About The Times Editorial Board .

More From the Los Angeles Times

Editorial: LAPD needs a chief who can turn around the department and restore public confidence

Aug. 30, 2024

Editorial: It’s not election interference to hold a former president accountable for election interference

Aug. 29, 2024

Editorial: The Clippers’ arena may be allowed to serve alcohol till 4 a.m. Why not other bars and restaurants?

Editorial: Why the rush? Hasty L.A. school bond vote leaves many questions unanswered

Aug. 28, 2024

By providing an email address. I agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge that I have read the Privacy Policy .

Breastfeeding in climate change era

Early this August, I was privileged to speak at the 2024 Breastfeeding Congress organized by the Philippine Pediatric Society and the Chinese General Hospital. Each year, to mark World Breastfeeding Week, health professionals and advocates gather to discuss the latest science, policy, and updates on this practice.

Breastfeeding is perhaps one of the cheapest yet most effective public health interventions. It is considered “the first vaccine” because of its clear benefits to improve the immunity of infants against infectious diseases. Breastmilk alone already meets babies’ full nutritional requirements in the first few months—hence exclusive breastfeeding is prescribed up to six months of age.

Interestingly, even during the pandemic, evidence revealed that more infants were at risk of dying from lack of breastfeeding than from the virus itself. A 2016 global study of 153 countries concluded that exclusive breastfeeding reduces infant mortality by 88 percent.

Beyond infancy, breastfeeding promotes children’s cognitive development, which is vital to fully enjoy life’s opportunities. Research also showed that it reduces the risk of chronic noncommunicable diseases such as obesity and diabetes in childhood and adulthood. Breastfeeding is good for mothers, too, reducing their risk of breast and ovarian cancer, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension.

Last year, a landmark report in the international medical journal The Lancet declared breastfeeding as “crucially important, but increasingly challenged in a market-driven world.” What the paper failed to ask was, “What is the future of breastfeeding in a warmer world?” The climate crisis can no longer be ignored, even by health and nutrition advocates. The World Health Organization (WHO) even declared it as one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century.

Climate change impacts human health in different ways—from driving infectious disease outbreaks to causing surges in heat stroke incidence. It also affects all people throughout the entire lifespan—including babies. Infants are particularly susceptible to climate change, which can increase their risk of dehydration, diarrhea, and infectious disease. Hence, now more than ever, public health interventions for the care of infants must be further intensified, including the practice of breastfeeding which, without a doubt, is a protective measure against climate change.

But climate change can reverse progress achieved as a result of widespread breastfeeding. One study in Kenya found that increased exposure to heat among babies can injure their skin and mouth, which makes breastfeeding an uncomfortable experience. Under extreme heat conditions, mothers who just gave birth endure a longer healing period, which can make them practice breastfeeding less and which also affect the quality of the breastfeeding experience overall.

Worse, mothers may resort to commercial milk formula that, in disaster settings, can make the preparation of milk formula risky because of unhygienic conditions and lack of clean water.

The health community must therefore ensure that, in the era of climate change, a strong breastfeeding culture exists and remains in our society, while also pushing for protection against heat, floods, and other climate disasters that can endanger breastfeeding frequency and quality.

Apart from its climate adaptation function, breastfeeding can also be viewed as a climate mitigation practice, as it can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow the progression of climate change. One study conducted by the Australian National University used the Green Feeding Climate Action Tool, which estimates carbon footprints associated with the consumption of commercial milk formula among infants aged under six months. Globally, milk formula use is estimated to emit greenhouse gases from cows amounting to around 5.9 to 7.5 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent each year—which is like cutting up to approximately 341 million trees. Another study concluded that milk formula produces 38 percent more carbon than breastfeeding.

Given these numbers, a paper recently published in the Bulletin of the WHO concluded: “Achieving global nutrition targets for breastfeeding would realize far greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions than decarbonizing commercial milk formula manufacturing.”

In conclusion, while breastfeeding is a climate adaptation for health, it also needs to be “climate-proofed” to adapt to climate change, sustain global progress, and benefit the health of populations. By being a climate mitigation measure, it is not only an effective public health intervention, but also a promising planetary health solution—one that saves not only human lives but the planet, too.

—————-

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Renzo R. Guinto, M.D., Dr.PH., is associate professor at the SingHealth Duke-NUS Global Health Institute based at the National University of Singapore.

Fearless views on the news

Disclaimer: Comments do not represent the views of INQUIRER.net. We reserve the right to exclude comments which are inconsistent with our editorial standards. FULL DISCLAIMER

© copyright 1997-2024 inquirer.net | all rights reserved.

We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. By continuing, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. To find out more, please click this link.

Content Search

Philippines

26M Filipino Learners Suffer the Most from Climate Change, says Save The Children Philippines

• Save the Children

Attachments

Over 26 million enrolled students in the Philippines are confronted with the multifaceted impacts of climate change, including the possibility of El Nino bringing intolerable heat, more powerful typhoons, and limited access to water for basic needs. This happens to about half of the 75 million children around the world whose education is interrupted every year by natural disasters like floods and drought.

“In the past four years, we have experienced changes in the school calendar and mode of delivery due to the pandemic and to adapt to the changing climate, on top of all the class suspensions due to frequent typhoons. We are yet facing another calendar shift due to El Nino,” 17-year-old climate campaigner Rohj Olivo said.

Recently, Olivo was in Thailand as a youth representative for the 11th Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development (APFSD). He is a youth advocate for Save the Children Philippines' Generation Hope campaign against climate change and inequality. During the APFSD, Olivo spoke with Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, Executive Secretary of UN ESCAP, and Surya Deva, UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Development, about children's rights to a healthy environment.

“Our argument is clear: in the midst of climate change, government action should ensure that we have uninterrupted access to quality education, and to effectively solve this problem, leaders must not only listen to children and youth's voices but also heed our wisdom, for it is our future that hangs in the balance,” Olivo shared.

During APFSD's event on Building a Greener Future: Education as a Climate Solution in Bangkok, Thailand, Philippine Congresswoman Ma. Cynthia King Chan proudly shared information about R.A. 10821, also known as the Children's Emergency Relief and Protection Act, that ensures the continuity of services, particularly education, for children who are displaced before, during, and after disasters.

Save the Children Philippines has been at the forefront of advocating for R.A. 10821, including its localization so that all Filipino children are protected from emergencies at all times.

Congresswoman Cindi commended ongoing efforts such as integrating climate change modules and the Green School Program, a school-based adaptation program, as well as supporting research and enhancing teacher training. The program will help 47,000 public schools strengthen their climate mitigation adaption strategies and enhance resilience, thus reducing learning interruptions.

"By imparting knowledge, and skills, and fostering critical thinking in our children, we empower them to become climate champions," Congresswoman Chan said.

Save the Children Philippines also implements Comprehensive School Safety (CSS) Ecosystems and Quality Assurance System (QAS) programs in over 21,000 schools and 12,000 barangays to ensure that children, schools, and communities are climate-literate, responsible, and resilient to the inevitable impacts of climate change.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, please contact :

Ms. Kay I. Yeban Maatubang

Brand & Integrated Communications Manager

Mobile : 0917. 162. 1503

Email : [email protected]

Related Content

Acaps briefing note - philippines: floods and landslides in mindanao island (16 february 2024), unicef concerned for children in the philippines as super typhoon mawar/betty enters philippine area of responsibility (par), save the children philippines deploys rapid assessment teams to aid children, families affected by tropical storm paeng, philippines super typhoon karding 2022 - dref application (mdrph048).